INEI: Population of Peru will exceed 39 million in 2050

Within the framework of the World Population, that commemorates today, July 11th, the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) informed that according to the projections for 2025, Peru will reach 34 350 244 inhabitants and for 2050, the figure will increase to 39 363 351 persons.

The chief of the INEI, Dr. Gaspar Morán Flores, recalled that 80 years ago the country did not even reach the eight million of inhabitants. In addition, the greater population growth rhythm was registered between 1961 and 1972, with an annual average rate of 2.8%.

During the forum “The future of the population: inclusive data for sustainable development”, Morán explained that between 2017 and 2025 the annual average growth rate was of 1.2%, driven mainly by the Venezuelan immigration.

Historically, the proportion of men and women had been similar in the censuses. Just in 1972 was observed a slight majority of male population (101 men for each 100 women). From then on, it prevails a slight female majority. For this year, 2025, it is projected that the 50.4% of the population are women (17 325 148) and 49.6% hombres (17 025 096). Nevertheless, the real figure will be known through direct data collection, through 2025 National Censuses.

When analyzing the population evolution between 1950 and 2050, it was observed that the population of 0 to 14 years old reached its peak in the year 200, with 9,099.719 persons. Meanwhile, the group of 15 to 59 years old will continue growing till its maximum peak during 2045.

Nevertheless, since 20240, older adults (7,578.253) will overseed for the first time those under 15 years old (7,559.086), marking a demographic milestone for the country.

In 2017, the base of the population pyramid was even wide and young (0-14 years old). But, according to the projections, for 2050 that base will significantly reduce by the birth-rate drop, meanwhile the proportion of older adults (60 years old and older).

The demographic pyramid - composed by the population of greater age - experiences a significant increase, reflecting a greater life expectancy and a sustained demographic transformation across the country.

The dependence relation measures how many persons in dependent age (0-14 and 60 years old and older) are for each 100 persons in active age (15-59 years old). This relation had been decreased since the period 1965-1970, generating what is known as demographic bonus: when economically active population grows more than the dependent.

In 2020, the relation was of 60.2 dependents for each 100 active persons. Nevertheless, it is expected that this trend gradually reverts due to the increase of older adults and the decrease of population under 15 years old, which will increase again the demographic burden.

During the forum, the chief of the INEI also announced that between August and October will be carried out the 2025 National Censuses. Contrary to the previous years, the law censes will be applied, it means, it will be registering the persons in its habitual residence.

More than 40,000 census officers will travel the 1,891 districts of the country, visiting 13,903 273 housings. All of them will be duly identified with credential and QR code, that Will be verified in the INEI’s web. It is stressed that the census officer will not enter the housings during the registration.

The census form includes 67 questions distributed in five sessions, relating to the characteristics of the housing and the population. All the information will be confidential and will be storage in real time through the electronic tablets connects to INEI’s servers.

The forum was carried out in the headquarters of the Andean Community (CAN) and had the participation of Fanny Montellanos Carbajal, Minister of Women and Vulnerable Population; Hugo González Coltriani, representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA); and Dr. Gaspar Morán Flores, chief of the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI).